Did you feel the earthquake?

Did you feel today's earthquake? I felt it.  I was sitting at this very same desk checking my email when things started to shake, noticeably.

Check out the following links regarding today's quake:
USGS Map of Mercalli Shaking

USGS Technical Details and Maps of Today's Quake

Noah's Ark

I could have sworn I saw an old guy in a huge wooden boat floating down Jackson Avenue yesterday...

Take a look at this image:


Now take a close look at the color scale on the right side of the image.  Here in Mineola Chaminade's weather station recorded over 6 inches of rain yesterday.  Not quite the almost 11 in Lido Beach or 9 in Bellmore.

Why so much rain you might be asking? Well you might have noticed the cloud structure yesterday, almost tropical-like for those of you who have seen a tropical system.  While this current storm is not tropical, it does have an enormous feed of both Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean moisture.

Hurricane Activity

You may have missed this update from NOAA about one week ago, but it's worth repeating.

NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season update calls for increase in named storms

Forecasters have higher confidence for an active season

August 4, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily on August 3 from NOAA's geostationary satellite GOES-EAST.

Download here. (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook today raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May. Forecasters also increased their confidence that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, updates its Atlantic hurricane season outlook every August.

“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.  “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña.  Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.

Based on these conditions and on climate model forecasts, the confidence for an above-normal season has increased from 65 percent in May to 85 percent. Also, the expected number of named storms has increased from 12-18 in May to 14-19, and the expected number of hurricanes has increased from 6-10 in May to 7-10.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:

• 14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are indicative of an active season, and extend well above the long-term seasonal averages of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The Atlantic basin has already produced five tropical storms this season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily. All eyes this week are on Emily, which continues to develop and move towards the United States.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Last year saw above-normal hurricane activity, but none made landfall in the United States. August through October are peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, and FEMA urges people not to be lured into a false sense of security by the lack of hurricanes so far this year.

"It is still early in this hurricane season and we know it can take only one storm to devastate communities and families," said FEMA Deputy Administrator Rich Serino. "Many disasters come without warning, but that’s not the case with hurricanes. This is hurricane season, if you haven't already, now is the time to take a few simple steps to get you and your family prepared. Anyone can visit www.ready.gov to learn more."

Be prepared for the hurricane season with important information available online at hurricanes.gov/prepare and at FEMA’s ready.gov.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us onFacebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

While the first part of the tropical season has been very slow, the 2nd part will probably be a bit more active, as evidenced by the four tropical systems in various stages of development and decay churn their way through the Atlantic Ocean.


Two points worth remembering:
1. The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season does not occur until September 15.
2. Long Island has not had a land-falling hurricane (75 mph+) since 1985 - Gloria.

Heat and Drought

I'm not sure how many of you help your parents with grocery shopping, but you should ask them about food prices over the past 6 months.  Most of our wheat is grown in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

Next, check out the NOAA Drought Monitor: NOAA Drought Monitor Link

Notice also that in addition to the south central US (southern plains), a large portion of the deep south/southeast US is also experiencing a significant drought.  Guess what the primary agriculture is there. Not sure...peanuts and cotton are two of the biggest.

Combine all of this with disastrous wheat harvests for Russia and Australia during their previous harvest seasons and what do you get? Global grain and commodity shortages and rising prices.  Ouch.

So you thought this summer was the hottest ever?

Well, it certainly was hot.  But 2011 so far, and July in particular, has only been the fourth warmest on record.  That doesn't diminish the fact that both 2010 and 2011 have been extremely warm.

Check out NOAA's summary article of summer, 2011.  NOAA Article

Black Holes

Here's a link to a fascinating article on some recent evidence discovered with NASA's Chandra X-Ray telescope.

So it is true...black holes really aren't entirely "black."

Science Daily article on Chandra and Black Holes

Enjoy.